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post #1 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 09:12 AM - Thread Starter
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Its a matter of time before Projectors become obsolete.

Not sure if this is the place to post this but remember many years ago home video fans were making homemade 35mm adapter fitted to their fullhd home video camera to have that film look? Even the professional equipment makers were on board selling their professionally made equipment for thousands of dollars. It wasn't long before Canon and Nikon started adding video capabilities into their still cameras and the 35mm adapter business was hugely affected. suddenly people aren't interested in the 35mm adapters anymore. At least I lost the interest completely as I bought myself a Canon 5D mark II.

Now we have affordable 4K projectors and large screens to go with it. We also have enthusiast/business owner trying to make the best screens out of specially produced paint and fabrics to improve image contrast. I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing large format LED or Oled screens being sold in the mass market for home theaters and take the projectors completely out of the equation. Probably and hopefully not too long. At the moment we are seeing Samsung producing the Onyx to replace screens and projection in movie theaters. And Samsung is currently working on a home cinema version of the Onyx. Can't wait for the new technology to arrive and we can all worry about something else.

Anyone else looking forward to this?? Are we there yet??
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post #2 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 09:23 AM
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No.
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post #3 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 10:08 AM
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Originally Posted by alexccmeister View Post
Not sure if this is the place to post this but remember many years ago home video fans were making homemade 35mm adapter fitted to their fullhd home video camera to have that film look? Even the professional equipment makers were on board selling their professionally made equipment for thousands of dollars. It wasn't long before Canon and Nikon started adding video capabilities into their still cameras and the 35mm adapter business was hugely affected. suddenly people aren't interested in the 35mm adapters anymore. At least I lost the interest completely as I bought myself a Canon 5D mark II.

Now we have affordable 4K projectors and large screens to go with it. We also have enthusiast/business owner trying to make the best screens out of specially produced paint and fabrics to improve image contrast. I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing large format LED or Oled screens being sold in the mass market for home theaters and take the projectors completely out of the equation. Probably and hopefully not too long. At the moment we are seeing Samsung producing the Onyx to replace screens and projection in movie theaters. And Samsung is currently working on a home cinema version of the Onyx. Can't wait for the new technology to arrive and we can all worry about something else.

Anyone else looking forward to this?? Are we there yet??
We are not even close to being there. You can get a good/decent 4Kish (eshift/DLP) projector and good cheap screen, etc for under $2K. Easily. For under $10K you can get a very nice 4K native projector and screen. For under $30K? Very good setup, that in the right room, can provide an amazing picture.

IMHO you wont see 100-150" LED/OLED 4K/HDR screens that can crack the even the $30K barrier for many years to come. Under $2-5K? I think we are many, many, years away until that tech can be afforded by the masses.
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post #4 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 11:16 AM
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We are not even close to being there. You can get a good/decent 4Kish (eshift/DLP) projector and good cheap screen, etc for under $2K. Easily. For under $10K you can get a very nice 4K native projector and screen. For under $30K? Very good setup, that in the right room, can provide an amazing picture.

IMHO you wont see 100-150" LED/OLED 4K/HDR screens that can crack the even the $30K barrier for many years to come. Under $2-5K? I think we are many, many, years away until that tech can be afforded by the masses.
Add to that the cost of a rollable display for those that want retractable screens.
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post #5 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 01:43 PM
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Originally Posted by ack_bk View Post
We are not even close to being there. You can get a good/decent 4Kish (eshift/DLP) projector and good cheap screen, etc for under $2K. Easily. For under $10K you can get a very nice 4K native projector and screen. For under $30K? Very good setup, that in the right room, can provide an amazing picture.

IMHO you wont see 100-150" LED/OLED 4K/HDR screens that can crack the even the $30K barrier for many years to come. Under $2-5K? I think we are many, many, years away until that tech can be afforded by the masses.
Shipping on a 150" flat panel could be very expensive. Slowly increasing carbon taxes on everything won't help prices go down either. And I just like the look of a projected image.

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post #6 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 02:06 PM
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Its a matter of time before Projectors become obsolete.

This is what I imagine, micro led or oled tiles replacing ultra high end projectors first. As the installation process becomes more streamlined and manufacturing costs drop we will see most home cinema projectors being phased out. Budget and business projectors will stay around simply because of portability and cost effectiveness.

When you really think about it, manufacturers could build each tile for dirt cheap already. If your constructing a 120” 4k video wall the pixel density would be 25% of the 60” 4k TV’s that are being sold for under $500 now. The only added cost would be installation labor and a scaler/processor to operate the tiles. Snapping together a few dozen well designed modular tiles probably wouldn’t take more than an afternoon of labor and most run of the mill pc’s today could do the scaling and processing now. I personally would totally embrace this.

Of course there will always be people stuck on the nostalgia and romance of projectors, much like record players and tube amps.
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post #7 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 02:32 PM
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I’d like to add that the only companies who have demonstrated this kind of tech are LG, Sony and Samsung. I don’t think any of these three are in a hurry to spend money developing something that will only cannibalize products they already sell. That being I’m convinced it will happen eventually, you can only slow down progress so much. Just don’t hold your breath imo.
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post #8 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 03:02 PM
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This is what I imagine, micro led or oled tiles replacing ultra high end projectors first. As the installation process becomes more streamlined and manufacturing costs drop we will see most home cinema projectors being phased out. Budget and business projectors will stay around simply because of portability and cost effectiveness.

When you really think about it, manufacturers could build each tile for dirt cheap already. If your constructing a 120” 4k video wall the pixel density would be 25% of the 60” 4k TV’s that are being sold for under $500 now. The only added cost would be installation labor and a scaler/processor to operate the tiles. Snapping together a few dozen well designed modular tiles probably wouldn’t take more than an afternoon of labor and most run of the mill pc’s today could do the scaling and processing now. I personally would totally embrace this.

Of course there will always be people stuck on the nostalgia and romance of projectors, much like record players and tube amps.
I could see modular panels/tiles being an interesting future state as well. Manufacturers would love it as you can add more panels as you go, but you would need to make sure the screen looks seamless when snapped together and, to your point, scale all of this. It all seems feasible but manufacturers will try to maximize profits up front.

The biggest issue for me will be audio. I use an AT screen now and the thought of getting a much smaller screen so I can accommodate large speakers and subwoofers as well as giving up my vertical matching speaker as my center channel is not very appealing at all. It would be like taking one step forward and one step back. But for most people this would not be an issue.

I have a totally light controlled mostly black bat cave so I am fine with projectors especially now that they are starting to use lasers that provide much more light output and no issues with bulbs.

Projector technology continues to evolve as well and a high contrast 4K/HDR laser projector that can put out 5K+ in lumen output at an affordable price in the next 2-3 years is very likely.
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post #9 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 03:30 PM
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The biggest issue for me will be audio. I use an AT screen now and the thought of getting a much smaller screen so I can accommodate large speakers and subwoofers as well as giving up my vertical matching speaker as my center channel is not very appealing at all. It would be like taking one step forward and one step back. But for most people this would not be an issue.



I think if the center channel was split between the top and bottom of the screen it might solve this. Just not sure if it would fool your ears the way horizontal stereo imaging does. Just a thought.
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post #10 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 03:34 PM
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Yes, there's no effective flat-panel implementation of through-display audio like you get at the cinema house, or with an AT screen.


I omit Sony's Acoustic Surface feature as a dog-walking-on-its-hind-legs curiosity. If it ever evolves to challenge century-old loudspeaker technology, I will repent.
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post #11 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 04:03 PM
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No.
Agreed!
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post #12 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 04:15 PM
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I think if the center channel was split between the top and bottom of the screen it might solve this. Just not sure if it would fool your ears the way horizontal stereo imaging does. Just a thought.
You get comb filtering when you do this. Above the screen angled towards the audiience will probably be fine for multiple rows and stadium style seating in many theaters. Not as good as an AT screen but most won't care or notice.
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post #13 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 04:26 PM
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I’d like to add that the only companies who have demonstrated this kind of tech are LG, Sony and Samsung. I don’t think any of these three are in a hurry to spend money developing something that will only cannibalize products they already sell. That being I’m convinced it will happen eventually, you can only slow down progress so much. Just don’t hold your breath imo.
That Samsung " Micro-LED The Wall, Luxury " video display looks pretty cool. Too bad the 13' wide 2.0:1 version costs $350K right now. Makes my RS4500 seem cheap in comparison.

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post #14 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 04:53 PM
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Also, with recent advancements in Ambient Light Rejecting screens, one of the main downsides of projection is being addressed.
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post #15 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 05:05 PM
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If you look at the way prices have dropped on TV's, it is possible. Big problem is getting that 150" TV through the door.
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post #16 of 82 Old 01-03-2019, 05:12 PM
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If you look at the way prices have dropped on TV's, it is possible. Big problem is getting that 150" TV through the door.
They're going to come in a tube, and you'll roll it onto the wall.
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That Samsung " Micro-LED The Wall, Luxury " video display looks pretty cool. Too bad the 13' wide 2.0:1 version costs $350K right now. Makes my RS4500 seem cheap in comparison.


I think that must be the “First Five customers get to pay our 2018 R&D expenses” promotional price. Total steal imo
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post #18 of 82 Old 01-04-2019, 02:31 AM
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Its a matter of time before Projectors become obsolete.

If you consider the somewhat more macro developments going on, housing cost is on the increase and space the main limiter. This will move more and more dedicated HT’s to the living room and as such projectors will certainly struggle in that scenario given that TV’s are getting bigger, cheaper and also better every day. ALR setups is in my opinion dead in the water in that sense, there are simply too many drawbacks (low AT, reduced viewing angles, still way less light output than a TV and so on)... ALR might still play a small role in ‘stealth’ living room setups though, but rollable OLED - whenever that tech is ready that is (LG says 2019, but let’s see) - will deem any ALR setup obsolete overnight...

For dedicated setups, however, where audio is emphasised, but space still being an increasing limiter moving forward, AT screens will continue to dominate and also increase its position in my opinion. While lumens increase, positive gain and non-AT screens will decrease... Of course I would say that being heavily invested in AT screens, but I do believe this to be the case regardless.

On that note, I really do not see tiles being a major threat to projection, provided of course, that projection is used mainly for the dedicted HT space. Audio and acoustics in general is simply too important in those setups, and the people installing in these rooms also tend to know their business (or at least their installer does). You want maximum image AND sound stage for a dedicated setup, simple as that...

Still, projection needs to improve, especially in terms of light output and contrast. It’s currently moving too slow in my opinion, but recent developments from Christie for example, does provide some hope of major innovation happening sooner or later. I’m hoping for sooner...


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post #19 of 82 Old 01-04-2019, 03:28 AM - Thread Starter
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They're going to come in a tube, and you'll roll it onto the wall.

We just need this to be 25x bigger.

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http://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/950463319898431488

No doubt the price will still be a factor at this point in time but as the consumer market grows, the demand will mean cheaper product. With competition among manufacturers the size will only go up. Exciting time.
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BTW, I hope I am not breaking any forum rules posting links of videos from youtube that aren't mine. If I am, Admin can you please delete the posts as I don't see an edit button anywhere.
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post #23 of 82 Old 01-04-2019, 06:51 AM
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If you consider the somewhat more macro developments going on, housing cost is on the increase and space the main limiter. This will move more and more dedicated HT’s to the living room and as such projectors will certainly struggle in that scenario given that TV’s are getting bigger, cheaper and also better every day. ALR setups is in my opinion dead in the water in that sense, there are simply too many drawbacks (low AT, reduced viewing angles, still way less light output than a TV and so on)... ALR might still play a small role in ‘stealth’ living room setups though, but rollable OLED - whenever that tech is ready that is (LG says 2019, but let’s see) - will deem any ALR setup obsolete overnight...

For dedicated setups, however, where audio is emphasised, but space still being an increasing limiter moving forward, AT screens will continue to dominate and also increase its position in my opinion. While lumens increase, positive gain and non-AT screens will decrease... Of course I would say that being heavily invested in AT screens, but I do believe this to be the case regardless.

On that note, I really do not see tiles being a major threat to projection, provided of course, that projection is used mainly for the dedicted HT space. Audio and acoustics in general is simply too important in those setups, and the people installing in these rooms also tend to know their business (or at least their installer does). You want maximum image AND sound stage for a dedicated setup, simple as that...

Still, projection needs to improve, especially in terms of light output and contrast. It’s currently moving too slow in my opinion, but recent developments from Christie for example, does provide some hope of major innovation happening sooner or later. I’m hoping for sooner...


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http://eyeonhousing.org/2018/05/sing...start-of-2018/

Not in the US. In 2018 the average home size (sq ft) actually increased to over 2600 sq ft. For larger cities though with dense populations I agree with you. But here in the US it seems like more and more people are building 3-6K sq ft homes that have money. Rooms for dedicated media rooms are not an issue if you have money.
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post #24 of 82 Old 01-04-2019, 06:57 AM
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We are not even close to being there. You can get a good/decent 4Kish (eshift/DLP) projector and good cheap screen, etc for under $2K. Easily. For under $10K you can get a very nice 4K native projector and screen. For under $30K? Very good setup, that in the right room, can provide an amazing picture.

IMHO you wont see 100-150" LED/OLED 4K/HDR screens that can crack the even the $30K barrier for many years to come. Under $2-5K? I think we are many, many, years away until that tech can be afforded by the masses.
Two thousand bucks is almost a months take-home salary for the average person in the US (annal income $50,000). Not nearly affordable at all. A long way to go
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post #25 of 82 Old 01-04-2019, 08:03 AM
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I see this topic pop up about once a year in one forum or another or some variation on the theme.

TVs or what ever we will call these new devices is a mainstream product now at least in the developed world. Just like having a refrigerator or indoor plumbing almost. Most homes even modest homes have more than one TV. Be it iPhone size or 42” they convey information and entertainment.

Projectors are not at all a mainstream product and the assumption is they are just a massive TV or a method of achieving a massive TV image. Over the last 10 years or so with changes in technology projectors have came down in price and up in tech to the point they could have become more mainstream other than the fact the competing technologies greatly improved more in all areas except size.

The real question is where do the market forces push this issue. Homes may be a little bigger people might have a little more disposable income but the generation that grew up on smart phones watching movies I don’t see clamoring to replicate the movie theater experience at home. Most of them are not impressed with size of a projected image as they have been looking at them from kindergarten on in school settings more than theater setting. Most are happy with around 60” images and most homes that’s large enough. They don’t want to contend with ambient light issues and sound systems with multi components that was 60’s – 80’s stuff. A sound bar is a starting point and a wireless theater in a box is an end goal.

Combine desires and market forces and they will dictate the force technology will push into larger displays. Just being able to do it is not enough there has to be profit.

Front projection and screens over 100” will always be a small market I think and will always require a good setting to work their best. When you can buy a 1080p HT projector for under $500 and have 150” brightness as you can today, then of course you are going to attract a new group of consumers and they will be rigging them up in any room or basement or garage they can find large enough. It is a really great thing for this hobby because a few will keep going with it. These same people are never going to spend $10k-$50 for that same immersive experience albeit much better.

As time rolls on the demographics of us old folks that have different memories of what movies are and what a theater experience was in the days before anything remotely close could be obtained at home die off, I think that might impact the desire for dedicated FP HT rooms as we know them. I hope that’s not the case though.

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Projectors will become mainstream, but not in the form of a high quality home theater projector. Think "mp3" here instead:That means LED module on your phone or watch or a portable accessory to it, for a "good enough" image about the size of an tablet screen.
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post #27 of 82 Old 01-06-2019, 02:27 PM
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I think if the center channel was split between the top and bottom of the screen it might solve this. Just not sure if it would fool your ears the way horizontal stereo imaging does. Just a thought.
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You get comb filtering when you do this. Above the screen angled towards the audiience will probably be fine for multiple rows and stadium style seating in many theaters. Not as good as an AT screen but most won't care or notice.
I think someone around here was trying to do the above/below cc, but Ellebob is correct.

JBL did three speakers above a screen at Cedia. It worked really well. I think Floyd Toole said this would be the best option with a solid screen.

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post #28 of 82 Old 01-06-2019, 02:43 PM
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Not sure if this is the place to post this but remember many years ago home video fans were making homemade 35mm adapter fitted to their fullhd home video camera to have that film look? Even the professional equipment makers were on board selling their professionally made equipment for thousands of dollars. It wasn't long before Canon and Nikon started adding video capabilities into their still cameras and the 35mm adapter business was hugely affected. suddenly people aren't interested in the 35mm adapters anymore. At least I lost the interest completely as I bought myself a Canon 5D mark II.

Now we have affordable 4K projectors and large screens to go with it. We also have enthusiast/business owner trying to make the best screens out of specially produced paint and fabrics to improve image contrast. I wonder how long it will be before we start seeing large format LED or Oled screens being sold in the mass market for home theaters and take the projectors completely out of the equation. Probably and hopefully not too long. At the moment we are seeing Samsung producing the Onyx to replace screens and projection in movie theaters. And Samsung is currently working on a home cinema version of the Onyx. Can't wait for the new technology to arrive and we can all worry about something else.

Anyone else looking forward to this?? Are we there yet??
They probably won't disappear completely but you are not wrong. Projectors will become an even smaller niche than they are now. But this is still a few years away. Once we get affordable >100" 8K TVs.

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I was watching a movie a while back Passengers (2016) Chris Pratt, Jennifer Lawrence. Although I didn’t like the move all that much I was amused at how the future was portrayed in terms of displays on the futuristic spaceship. Every room had walls or windows that would transform into some kind of massive TV like screen and holograms popped up when needed.

When they went on a romantic date to see a movie though they went to this theater and there was the stream of front projection light illuminating a big reflective screen.

That could have been the director Morten Tyldum making a statement about is craft and how he sees it in the future still having a place. I don’t know but I thought it pretty funny it was in the movie and it worked well.

Bud
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post #30 of 82 Old 01-06-2019, 05:14 PM
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Thinking in years gets one in a narrow frame of view. What are we currently missing for projector technology to explode across the board? TI and others to make power efficient and cheap 4K chips that display quality HDR LED pictures at the Dolby Vision max (5,000 nits peak equivalent in a dark room) while easily streaming in 4K content. Just a matter of a few years before this happens. How, a huge improvement in battery technology and/or power savings in 4K streaming could mean an explosion in projector technology being incorporated into smart phones. Look how good the rift cube was a few years back in a dark room, it was/is a usable quality TV if one wanted and dirt cheap but is almost useless unplugged for casual viewing because of battery life. Fact is, all this technology not ready for prime time- 4K/8K projectors, VR and full verbal computer interfaces are coming right around the corner and the demand is already known to be there when they are perfected. Between 5G and increased advanced in every aspect of this field, only Texas Instruments with it's monopoly on cheap hardware is slowing down the potential market.
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